Changing the Linear ComponentsΒΆ

Here we calculate trends using the SAGE II/OSIRIS/OMPS-LP Dataset. Trends are calculated in the following ways

  • With two linear terms that have a join point at 1997.

  • Same as above but with the join point changed to 2000

  • By fitting ozone anomalies without any linear component, and then fitting the residuals to a linear term

  • Using two orthogonal forms of the EESC

Start with some imports and loading in the data

[2]:

import xarray as xr
import numpy as np
from LOTUS_regression.regression import regress_all_bins
from LOTUS_regression.predictors import load_data
import LOTUS_regression.predictors.download as download
import LOTUS_regression.plotting.trends as trends
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from datetime import datetime
import pandas as pd
import time

[3]:

MERGED_FILE = r'/home/runner/work/lotus-regression/lotus-regression/test_data/S2_OS_OMPS/MERGED_LOTUS.nc'

mzm_data = xr.open_dataset(MERGED_FILE, engine='netcdf4')

We have our default set of predictors which contains linear terms joining at 1997

[4]:

predictors = load_data('pred_baseline_pwlt.csv').to_period('M')

print(predictors.columns)

Index(['enso', 'solar', 'qboA', 'qboB', 'aod', 'linear_pre', 'linear_post',
       'constant'],
      dtype='object')

And our default set of trends

[5]:

results = regress_all_bins(predictors, mzm_data['relative_anomaly'], tolerance=0.1)

# Convert to ~ percent
results *= 100

trends.pre_post_with_confidence(results, x='mean_latitude', y='altitude', ylim=(18, 50), log_y=False, figsize=(16, 6),
                                x_label='Latitude [$^\circ$]', y_label='Altitude [km]', pre_title='Pre 1997',
                                post_title='Post 1997')


Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_7_1.png

Now we change our inflection point in the linear trend to 2000 instead of 1997, and repeat the analysis

[6]:

predictors[['linear_pre', 'linear_post']] = download.load_linear(inflection=2000)[['pre','post']]

predictors[['linear_pre', 'linear_post']].plot(figsize=(16, 6))

[6]:

<Axes: xlabel='time'>
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_9_1.png 
[7]:

results = regress_all_bins(predictors, mzm_data['relative_anomaly'], tolerance=0.1)

# Convert to ~ percent
results *= 100

trends.pre_post_with_confidence(results, x='mean_latitude', y='altitude', ylim=(18, 50), log_y=False, figsize=(16, 6),
                                x_label='Latitude [$^\circ$]', y_label='Altitude [km]', pre_title='Pre 2000',
                                post_title='Post 2000')


Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_10_1.png

Now we remove the linear terms from our predictors and tell the regression call to post fit a trend to the residuals after the year 2000

[8]:

predictors = predictors.drop(['linear_pre', 'linear_post'], axis=1)

results = regress_all_bins(predictors, mzm_data['relative_anomaly'], tolerance=0.1, post_fit_trend_start='2000-01-01')

# Convert to ~ percent
results *= 100

trends.post_with_confidence(results, x='mean_latitude', y='altitude', ylim=(18, 50), log_y=False, figsize=(8, 6),
                                x_label='Latitude [$^\circ$]', y_label='Altitude [km]',
                                post_title='Post 2000')


Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_12_1.png

Lastly we add two orthogonal EESC terms and redo the regression

[9]:

predictors[['eesc_1', 'eesc_2']] = download.load_orthogonal_eesc('/home/runner/work/lotus-regression/lotus-regression/test_data/EESC.txt')[['eesc_1', 'eesc_2']]

predictors[['eesc_1', 'eesc_2']].plot(figsize=(16, 6))

results = regress_all_bins(predictors, mzm_data['relative_anomaly'], tolerance=0.1)


Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

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Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.

Intel MKL ERROR: Parameter 5 was incorrect on entry to DTRTRI.
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_14_1.png

The results are trickier to interpret, but we can combine the two EESC terms to find the total contribution in each bin for the EESC

[10]:

predictors = predictors[(pd.to_datetime(predictors.index.to_timestamp()) >= mzm_data.time.values[0]) & (pd.to_datetime(predictors.index.to_timestamp()) <= mzm_data.time.values[-1])]

eesc_contrib = results['eesc_1'].values[:, :, np.newaxis] * predictors['eesc_1'].values[np.newaxis, np.newaxis, :] +\
               results['eesc_2'].values[:, :, np.newaxis] * predictors['eesc_2'].values[np.newaxis, np.newaxis, :]

plt.plot(mzm_data.time.values, eesc_contrib[2, 40, :].T)
np.shape(eesc_contrib)
plt.title('EESC Contribution at 45 S, 40 km')

[10]:

Text(0.5, 1.0, 'EESC Contribution at 45 S, 40 km')
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_16_1.png

With some annoying time conversions we can also find the predicted turnaround time in each bin

[11]:

turnaround_index = np.argmin(eesc_contrib, axis=2)

turnaround_times = mzm_data.time.values[turnaround_index]

def to_year_fraction(date):
    def since_epoch(date): # returns seconds since epoch
        return time.mktime(date.timetuple())

    try:
        ts = (np.datetime64(date, 'ns') - np.datetime64('1970-01-01T00:00:00Z')) / np.timedelta64(1, 's')
    except:
        print(np.datetime64(date))
        return np.nan

    dt = datetime.utcfromtimestamp(ts)
    s = since_epoch

    year = dt.year
    startOfThisYear = datetime(year=year, month=1, day=1)
    startOfNextYear = datetime(year=year+1, month=1, day=1)

    yearElapsed = s(dt) - s(startOfThisYear)
    yearDuration = s(startOfNextYear) - s(startOfThisYear)
    fraction = yearElapsed / yearDuration

    return dt.year + fraction

turnaround_times = np.frompyfunc(to_year_fraction, 1, 1)(turnaround_times).astype(float)

turnaround_times[turnaround_index == 0] = np.nan
turnaround_times[turnaround_index == len(mzm_data.time.values)-1] = np.nan

plt.pcolor(mzm_data.mean_latitude.values, mzm_data.altitude.values, np.ma.masked_invalid(turnaround_times.T))
plt.clim(1984, 2010)
plt.ylim(20, 50)
plt.ylabel('Altitude [km]')
plt.xlabel('Latitude')
plt.title('Turnaround Time')
plt.colorbar()

[11]:

<matplotlib.colorbar.Colorbar at 0x7f6911705210>
../_images/examples_Changing_the_Linear_Components_18_1.png